Gold and silver moved modestly higher during day trading on Thursday thanks, in large part, to a boost from renewed safe-haven demand. Tensions in Ukraine are back on the front burner of the marketplace’s attention and even though things deescalated to some extent today, the entire situation remains extremely volatile. A few pieces of US economic data trickled in today but in the end it had little to no real affect on spot values as most economic data made public today was overshadowed by the situation in Ukraine.

Tensions Grow As Ukraine Struggles To Find Peace

Violence has raged for a fourth consecutive day this week as the Ukrainian military continues to face off against armed, pro-Russia militiamen. Having said that, however, Russian government officials recently made it clear that continued attacks on pro-Russians living in Ukraine will be interpreted as attacks on Russia itself. Out of fear of being attacked by a neighbor that is vastly superior to them militarily, Ukraine has since pulled back a number of its troops and is mulling over other ways to oust the armed militiamen.

The most recent batch of violence between rebels and the military this week is coming in the wake of a conference that was held last week which seemed to paint a picture of the United States and Russia cooperating in order to bring about a peaceful solution to the ongoing violence.

While tensions and thus safe-haven demand have been growing over the past few weeks, safe-haven demand alone has not been enough to restore spot gold and silver above key resistance levels. Today, however, rallying stocks took a brief recess and as a result limited the selling pressure being felt by gold and silver. It is unlikely that stocks will back off completely as we bring this week to a close, but today’s slip up in US equities has given precious metals investors a glimmer of hope with regard to finishing the week on a positive note.

President of the ECB bank, Mario Draghi, spoke in the early morning hours of Thursday and hinted that the ECB may shortly ease monetary policy in the region in an attempt to stave off growing deflationary pressures. The last annual inflation rate reading saw the EU at just .5%, more than 1% below the 2% target set forth by Europe’s major banking institution. Once monetary stimulus actually takes place in Europe it will be interesting to see what kind of affect it has on the marketplace as a whole.

Gold and silver spot values are both hovering around even but are feeling pressure from an increasingly bearish market. Safe-haven demand is being triggered due to a growing risk-off sentiment among investors, but safe-haven demand alone has not been enough to greatly improve gold nor silver’s position.

There have been a few important pieces of economic data released this week, but they have, for the most part, had little impact on the precious metals market. Instead, investors are more readily focusing on the crisis in Ukraine, which is slowly deteriorating once more.

Crisis In Ukraine Intensifies

Since the beginning of last week we have been keeping a close eye on a new slate of developments from Ukraine. It has been reported that a growing number of pro-Russia militiamen are taking over towns and buildings throughout the eastern half of Ukraine. This week alone it was reported that these militiamen took over an airfield in the town of Kramatorsk and were also seizing armored vehicles which belong to the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine’s interim president Oleksandr Turchynov gave his military permission to combat the pro-Russian rebel forces earlier this week and ever since then small skirmishes have been breaking out all over the country. In Kramatorsk the seized airfield was the scene of an intense firefight between rebel and Ukrainian forces, a fight which eventually saw Ukraine’s military regain control of the airfield. Leaders from Ukraine, Russia, the US, and the EU are meeting in Geneva, Switzerland today in an attempt to devise a solution for the ongoing crisis. Having said that, no one is really holding out too much hope that today’s meeting will bring out any real solutions. As a result of the recent flare-up in violence across Ukraine, safe-haven demand for precious metals has been on the rise. Normally, rising safe-haven demand would be enough for spot gold and silver to be given a noticeable boost, but the US Dollar has been performing well of late and is preventing metals from making any substantial gains.

European equity markets are feeling pressure from the crisis in Ukraine as it is more readily breeding a risk-off attitude amongst investors. As we approach the Easter weekend, it is widely believed that as the violence in Ukraine increases so too will the amount of investors who turn to safe-haven gold and silver. The real question, however, is whether or not more demand for physical metals will translate into loftier spot values once the marketplace opens next week.

Gold and silver were able to post gains for the first time in more than a week on Wednesday, but were turned right back around on Thursday thanks to a more valuable US Dollar and a lack of any major bullish news. As it sits currently, market bears are in control and apart from some isolated bargain-hunting, sellers are dominating.

This week has been loaded with US economic data, but up until now none of it has had any real impact on the spot values of gold or silver. Having said that, the market is awaiting March’s non-farm payrolls data which is scheduled to be released on Friday. Today, however, all eyes are on the European Central Bank who just recently finished up their latest policy meeting.

ECB Holds Position, Deflation Concerns Grow

Even before this week, even before this month for that matter, there were a growing number of investors who began to become concerned with regard to deflation across the EU. On Wednesday, those concerns intensified due to the most recent producer price index report. According to the report, the EU’s PPI had declined by .2% in February and was down by almost 2% on an annualized basis. This year on year decline was the largest such dip in the EU’s PPI since 2009. The PPI report only served to inflate the importance of today’s ECB meeting, which ended up having more of an uneventful outcome.

The ECB, with full knowledge of the growing concerns with regard to deflation, chose to maintain current interest level rates and refrained from initializing any new monetary stimulus measures. ECB president, Mario Draghi alluded that monetary stimulus is not out of the cards, just not not necessary at the present moment in time. The euro currency declined in the wake of the ECB’s decision as the US Dollar made strong gains against it. The stronger US Dollar only worked to put more pressure on gold and silver spot values.

Tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls data is perhaps the most highly anticipated piece of data released this week and will have the full attention of the marketplace. The market is currently expecting to see about 200,000 non-farm payrolls added to the US economy in March, though small deviations in either direction are expected as well.

Gold and silver have done little else apart from falling in value over the last few days, and have since fallen below important thresholds. Currently, spot gold is sitting below the $1,300 threshold while silver fell below $20/ounce a few days ago and has continued to decline. Hurting precious metals more than anything else is the fact that there have been very few pieces of new bullish developments this week. While there has been some US economic data, most of it failed to have any real impact on the marketplace.

The situation in Ukraine has since faded entirely to the background and is of little interest to investors now. With that being said, even the smallest flare up in violence in the region will put safe-haven demand for precious metals back on an upward path.

Lack of Fundamental Inputs Drives Gold, Silver Downward

What little economic and geopolitical developments made headlines this week ended up having no real impact on the spot values of metals. Earlier in the week, the market was greeted with a slew of US housing data, of which was mixed in nature. This news didn’t move metals in either direction, but it did give the US Dollar a bit of a boost. The Dollar has since grown more valuable and is a contributing factor in precious metals’ declines over the past week or so.

Adding to the pressure being placed on spot gold and silver was a report that Barclays revised their forecast for the spot value of gold at year’s end. Compared to their original forecast of $1,205, Barclays now expects spot gold to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,250 by the end of the year. On its face, this seems like good news for gold, but in reality the fact that their revised forecast still sees gold below its current spot value is an underlying bearish near-term factor for metals.

Finally, investors are still concerning themselves with statements made by chair of the Fed Janet Yellen last week. While talking to the media Ms. Yellen made it clear that she expects QE to be completely eliminated by the end of the year and that interest rates might be risen as early as next spring. This gave the greenback yet another boost and put more downward pressure on precious metals. Now, the hope is that gold and silver can halt their decline and get back on track either tomorrow or early next week.

Gold and silver have been receiving a boost the last few days thanks to a number of different factors. For one, tensions in the hotly disputed southern Ukrainian region of Crimea are as high as ever and stand the chance of boiling over at any point. Sunday is when a referendum to decide Crimea’s future will take place. As it stands, it is expected that Crimea’s citizens will vote that they rejoin the Russian Federation, a result that will only add to the region’s tensions. If things do go as planned, there is no saying what Crimea will look like in a week’s time.

Next week’s FOMC policy meeting is beginning to become a primary concern for investors, as it is likely that the meeting will result in yet another reduction to Quantitative Easing.

Slowing Chinese Economic Growth Beginning to Worry Investors

Seeing as the first few months of 2014 have offered nothing but consistently weak economic reports from China, it comes as no surprise that investors are beginning to develop doubts. Today, the slowing of China’s economy was made clear through yet another piece of economic data, this time it was the industrial output for January and February.

The market was expecting to see last month’s industrial output match the report we saw in December, though after only seeing 8.6% year on year growth, the doubters made their way to center stage. Not only did industrial output fall short of market expectations by more than a full percentage point, it showed a very visible slowing in China’s industrial sector. This news prompted the US Dollar to fall even further and increase safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Now, the Chinese not only have their declining industrial sector to worry about, but also a slew of reports indicating that their financial sector is weakening as well. Despite the fact that poor Chinese economic data typically translates into a weaker spot value of gold and silver, all of these worries surrounding their economy are prompting investors to protect their money, or what’s left of it, in safe-haven precious metals.

The civil unrest and raised tensions in Russia are two more factors helping prod safe-haven buying along. With the escalation of violence seemingly only a few wrong words away, it now seems like it is not a matter of whether there will be armed conflict, but more of a matter of when it will happen. For this reason and many more, we will continue to monitor all of the latest developments stemming from the crisis in Ukraine.

So far this week has been one of ups and downs for precious metals, making large gains one day only to concede those same gains a day later. Today, spot gold and silver are trading up, but only slightly. The reason for today’s gains can be directly attributed to a sell-off of the USD in the wake of hawkish statements made by the president of the European Central Bank. While it may seem confusing that the president of a central bank in a country other than the United States has the power to affect our currency, it makes much more sense when investors realize it is really only a surging euro that is putting pressure on the USD.

The crisis in Ukraine is still ongoing, but compared to last week has calmed down significantly. Diplomats from a number of nations, including the United States, are in Europe and have been attempting to formulate peaceful resolutions to a situation that is and has been on the verge of escalating into some type of armed conflict. We will continue to monitor the situation in Ukraine over the course of the next few days and the weekend as it stands the chance to evolve considerably in a very short amount of time.

Tensions In Ukraine, USD On The Decline

As the collapsed government of Ukraine looks to piece itself back together, a number of obstacles are making that process much more difficult than it needs to be. Earlier this week it was reported that Russian soldiers seized border posts in the southern region of Ukraine known as Crimea. In most any other country, the seizing of border posts by a foreign nation is an unadulterated act of war, but because Crimea is populated by an overwhelming majority of ethnic Russians, the presence of Russian military personnel is none too unfamiliar. Still, the actions of Russia earlier this week looked like, to many, the beginning stages of what could have turned into an all-out war between the two neighboring countries. As tensions in and around Ukraine rose, the risk-appetite exhibited by worldwide investors declined and the safe-haven demand for precious metals picked up considerably.

Since Monday, however, tensions have taken about 10 steps backwards as the situation seems more and more like it is calming down. Russian troops have since returned to their bases and the world has seen visible signs of attempts at peaceful resolutions by everyone involved. As the tensions declined in Ukraine, the spot values of gold and silver did too due to an increased appetite for risk by worldwide investors. Today, risk-appetite is still fairly high, but because the USD is declining in value, interest in precious metals is picking back up too.

As we look ahead to the last few days of the week, investors will be anxiously awaiting a few pieces of key employment data from the United States. After a few consecutive months of sub-par data investors will hope to see a change of pace and see the employment numbers beat market expectations.

After declining a decent bit a day ago, spot gold and silver is rebounding as it is becoming clear that precious metals bulls have the near-term control/momentum. While profit-taking was the main reason behind metals’ decline yesterday, some positive US economic data didn’t do the metals any favors. The most upbeat report released yesterday indicated that sales of new homes in the US rose by nearly 10% this past January. This was the largest such single-month increase in nearly 5 years and only added to the pressure being placed on gold and silver.

Today, investors will be paying attention to Janet Yellen’s address to the US Senate Banking Committee, an address that was originally scheduled for a few weeks ago but had to be postponed due to terrible weather hitting the eastern US.

Investors Hope to Gain Insight From Yellen’s Speech

Due to a recent run of poor US economic data, investors have been growing more confident that the FOMC will hold off on intensifying tapering at their next meeting. This growing notion is helping gold and silver in the near-term, though what the FOMC actually does as a result of their meeting will have the real, lasting impact on metals. Barely a week ago, the Fed made it clear that a small run of poor data is not enough to undo the last few months’ worth of upbeat data, but as the US economy is showing increased signs of weakness the more confident investors become that the tapering will have to be postponed, at least temporarily.

Investors will be paying attention to everything Janet Yellen has to say today in hopes that she will offer some clear insight into what will happen as a result of the next FOMC meeting. Realistically, however, Yellen will likely only reiterate her upbeat outlook on the US economy and will remain mostly vague in her commentary.

As we head into March next week, investors and the world alike will continue to pay attention to the ongoing civil unrest in both Ukraine and Thailand. Up to this point, these two situations have driven safe-haven demand for gold and silver and will continue to do so until everything is resolved.

Gold and silver are continuing to concede value today, though like it has been the whole week, losses are only slight. After precious metals made such substantial gains last week, it was only a matter of time before profit-taking and technical corrections became a factor weighing on the progress of gold and silver. Despite losses being posted for the last three trading sessions, it is still very clear that the gold and silver bulls still have the near-term momentum. As more worldwide investors become averse to risk, their money will begin more readily flowing out of assets like equities and into asset classes like commodities, specifically gold and silver.

A majority of this week has been quiet from an economic news standpoint, though today was a bit different thanks to a few reports from China and the United States.

Thursday’s Slate of Economic Data

Over the past two weeks, pieces of economic data with the ability to have a significant impact on the marketplace have been few and far between. While this much is still mostly true today, there were a bunch of economic reports made public in the United States worth paying attention to. Among these reports was the flash manufacturing PMI, the latest CPI, and real earnings reports. While some of these reports beat market expectations, others didn’t, and in the end these pieces of data ended up having a marginal impact on the marketplace. What might have pushed gold downward, however, was the upbeat weekly jobless claims report. For the first time in a few weeks, weekly jobless claims had decreased; a factor that boosted the USD and helped put pressure on precious metals.

In other news from around the world, China’s preliminary manufacturing PMI for February was reported as being even weaker than January’s reading. Compared to last month’s manufacturing PMI of 49.5, February’s preliminary reading came in at just barely over 48. As many of you are aware, any reading under 50 suggests that that sector of the economy is experiencing contraction. As is the case anytime poor economic news comes from the world’s largest consumer of precious metals, this report hurt gold and silver.

As we head into the final day of the week investors will be anxiously waiting to see if gold and silver can turn things around or if profit-taking will push metals even further downward.

Gold and silver have been posting solid gains ever since markets opened on Monday. Despite a lack of any real, fresh economic news or data, metals have been seeing consistently positive gains, including the whole of this week. The gains being made by gold and silver are especially impressive when you consider the fact that they are currently competing for investor money with surging US equities. Though the most recent US equity gains are expected to be short-lived, any time precious metals can gain in the face of competing assets is a positive sign going forward.

Despite there being very little economic activity to discuss this week, the US emitted a few reports today, of which had a marginal impact on precious metals spot values.

Safe-Haven Demand on the Rise Despite Rallying Stocks

US stocks have been rallying the last few days, seemingly out of nowhere. Despite stocks having a somewhat hard time over the past few weeks, the past few days have offered a bit of respite. While equities are on the rise this week, many market experts are unconvinced that this rally will be, in any way, sustainable. After performing positively for the past 5 years or so, it seems as though stocks may finally lose their upward trend. Historically, many equity markets in the same position as the United States’ is at present have acted in similar ways; after falling considerably, they regain their form and make impressive gains directly before collapsing for good. The belief that US equities are on their way out is fueling safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

As it stands, gold is up over the $1,300 threshold and has been hovering around 3-month highs for the majority of this week. With few pieces of economic data around to really push gold forward, it is especially impressive that the yellow metal made such significant strides this week. One can only wonder how well precious metals will perform should they be given a healthy batch of bullish economic data.

Gold and silver are both trading lower in the early parts of Thursday as most world stock markets have corrected themselves after a turbulent first half of the week. Yesterday’s FOMC decision to taper QE did not come as much of a surprise as most investors were expecting it. Despite gold and silver making gains in the immediate aftermath of the meeting, another $10 billion reduction to QE works out more for the US Dollar than it does for gold and silver.

Periphery Currencies Under Pressure This Week

When markets opened on Monday, the one thing everyone around the world noticed almost instantly was the fact that a boatload of periphery currencies began selling off at a rapid rate. Currencies like the Turkish lira, Indian rupee, and South African rand began taking part in a spot value free fall unlike anything investors have seen lately. The reason for this massive decline in the value of these currencies can be linked to growing liquidity concerns around the world.

As Chinese economic data slows and the US Federal Reserve takes away more easy money, investors are more readily abandoning the weakening currencies of places like India and South Africa. In response to the currency free fall we saw earlier in the week all three central banks held emergency policy meetings. As a result, the Turkish central bank decided to raise its key lending rate by 12%. Shortly thereafter the Indian and South African central banks also raised their key lending rates, though not by as large of a margin as we saw in Turkey. This move helped stabilize the currencies and thus the economies of those nations affected earlier this week.

The final manufacturing PMI for China was released today and what it had to say was disappointing to most investors. Keeping in line with recently poor economic data, Thursday’s final PMI reading for January came in at 49.5. In comparison to December, the PMI for January came back a whole basis point weaker. This data is particularly unnerving because any reading below 50 is suggestive of an economy that is or is on the verge of contracting. This poor economic data is not doing gold and silver any favors either as China is the world’s largest consumer of raw commodities, including precious metals.

As we bring this week to a close and look ahead to next week and beyond, it will be interesting to see if gold and silver can mount on recently positive performances or whether they will be heavily pressured by a stronger Dollar and weaker Chinese economic data.